We don't storypoint or do velocity with Shape Up. Tasks themselves can't be allocated numbers. It is about complexity and confidence.
The idea is that over time the unknowns are gone and estimates become believable.
Gives you a bird's eye view of what's moving forward with confidence.
The idea is that this is driven by scopes. Example high-level scopes:
From unknown to known, you can think to split this hill into six stages.