Loonshots

Bush-Vail Cartesian Plane

y plane: Dynamic Equilibrium
x plane: Phase Transition
Bottom-left quadrant: Stagnation
Bottom-right quadrant: Moses trap, PARC trap
Top-left quadrant: Chaos
Top-right quadrant: Bush-Vail Balance

Bush-Vail Rules

1. Separate the phases

Seperate your artists and soldiers
Tailor the tools to the phase
Watch your blind side: nurture both types of loonshots

2. Create dynamic equilibrium

Love your artists and soldiers equally
Manage the transfer, not the tech: be a gardener, not a Moses
Appoint and train project champions to bridge the divide

3. Spread a system mindset

Keep asking why the organisation made the choices that it did
Keep asking how the decision-making process can be improved
Identify teams with outcome mindset and help them adopt system mindset

4. Raise the magic number

Reduce return-on-politics
Use soft equity (nonfinancial awards)
Increase project-skill fit (scan for mismatches)
Fix the middle (reduce perverse incentives for middle managers)
Bring a gun to a knife fight (engage a chief incentives officer)
Fine-tune the spans (wide for loonshots for groups; narrow for franchise)

Other standard thoughts

Mind the False Fail
Listen to the Suck with Curiousity (LSC)
Apply system rather than outcome mindset
Keep your eyes on SRT: spirit, relationships, time

The Magic Number 150

Design + Fitness Parameters (G, S, E, F)

Parameter	Definition
Growth Rate (G)	Salary-Step Up (12% means G is 12%)
Management Span (S)	Manager : employee (S = 3)
Equity Fraction (E)	Equity ties your pay directly to quality
Fitness (F)	Project-Skill Fit + Return-On-Politics (F = 1 is equal)

Magic Number Equation

M (150) stands for the number that above which the balance flips from favoring project work to politics.

Below the threshold, incentives encourage employees to unite around making loonshots successful. Above, career considerations become more important and politics suddently appear.

type Equity = number;
type GrowthRate = number;
type ManagementSpan = number;
type Fitness = number;
type MagicNumber = number;

// M = magic number
const M = (
  E: Equity,
  S: ManagementSpan,
  F: Fitness,
  G: GrowthRate
): MagicNumber => (E * (S * S) * F) / G;

// example one
M(0.5, 6, 1, 0.12); // = 150
M(0.5, 10, 1, 0.33); // = 150